The Scout Mindset – by Julia Galef
Date read: 2/27/22. Recommendation: 9/10.
If you want to improve your ability to think clearly, there’s perhaps nothing more important than adopting a scout mindset. As Galef describes, a scout mindset is the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were. She describes the concept of updating—revising opinions incrementally over time as new information is gathered, which helps you remain open to evidence against your beliefs. Reality is your friend, not a threat. She emphasizes the importance of this mindset and tools to combat bias along the way.
See my notes below or Amazon for details and reviews.
My Notes:
What is the scout mindset?
Scout mindset: the motivation to see things as they are, not as you wish they were.
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” Richard Feynman
Embracing reality:
Soldier fighting behind enemy lines where he doesn’t know the territory will attempt to reach a high point on the hill to see what’s on the other side. They will then assess, “is there a bridge over this river?” Not delude themselves into barreling towards the river if no such bridge exists, no matter how much they might hope it does.
“The scout isn’t indifferent. A scout might hope to learn that the path is safe, that the other side is weak, or there’s a bridge conveniently located where his forces need to cross the river. But above all, he wants to learn what’s really there, not fool himself into drawing a bridge on his map where there isn’t one in real life. Being in scout mindset means wanting your ‘map’—your perception of yourself and the world—to be as accurate as possible.” JG
“In scout mindset, there’s no such thing as a ‘threat’ to your beliefs. If you find out you were wrong about something, great—you’ve improved your map, and that can only help you.” JG
Soldier mindset:
Counter to the scout mindset. Helps avoid negative emotions like fear, stress, regret.
Thought experiments to combat bias:
Double standard test: Are you judging one person (or group) by a different standard than you would use for another person (or group)?
The outsider test: How would you evaluate this situation if it wasn’t your situation?
The conformity test: If other people no longer held this view, would you still hold it?
The selective skeptic test: If this evidence supported the other side, how credible would you judge it to be?
The status quo (inertia) bias test: If your current situation was not the status quo, would you actively choose it?
Quantifying uncertainty:
“As long as you continue making positive expected value bets, that variance will mostly wash out in the long run. Building that variance into your expectations has the nice side effect of giving you equanimity. Instead of being elated when your bets pay off, and crushed when they don’t, your emotions will be tied to the trend line underneath the variance.” JG
Expand your perspective of time: “Even if a particular bet has a low probability of success, scouts know that their overall probability of success in the long run is much higher, as long as they keep making good bets. They’re motivated by the knowledge that downturns are inevitable, but will wash out in the long run; that although failure is possible, it’s also tolerable.” JG
Evaluating errors + updating:
Revise opinions incrementally over time as new information is gathered—helps you remain open to evidence against your beliefs. View errors as opportunity to hone your skill at getting things right—shifts experience of realizing you were wrong from something painful and embarrassing to something valuable.
“Most of the time being wrong doesn’t mean you did something wrong.” JG
“Instead of ‘admitting a mistake,’ scouts will sometimes talk about ‘updating.’ That’s a reference to Bayesian updating, a technical term from probability theory for the correct way to revise a probability after learning new information.”
Hold your identity lightly:
See Paul Graham’s, “Keep Your Identity Small” essay. “The more labels you have for yourself, the dumber they make you.”
Ideologies are incredibly dangerous and strip you of your ability to think for yourself. Charlie Munger: “Heavy ideology is one of the most extreme distorters of human cognition.”
“Holding an identity lightly means thinking of it in a matter-of-fact way, rather than as a central source of pride and meaning in your life. It’s a description, not a flag to be waved proudly.” JG